What if there were more donor livers?

You are changing one thing: donor livers each month. Everything else stays as the UK now — the same people join the list, the same rule decides who is offered each liver, the same share of livers come from DCD donors.

75 livers a month Fewer than today

57 of 100 transplanted within a year 28 still waiting · 5 removed · 10 died or became too unwell UK NOW 84 livers a month About 1,000 a year, as retrieved today

63 of 100 transplanted within a year 24 still waiting · 5 removed · 8 died or became too unwell 95 livers a month About 130 more a year

69 of 100 transplanted within a year 19 still waiting · 5 removed · 7 died or became too unwell

Transplanted Still waiting Removed from the list Died or became too unwell for a transplant Each version: 10 runs with the same people and livers

What this shows

With 95 donor livers a month instead of 84, six more people in every 100 are transplanted within a year and one fewer dies or becomes too unwell. With 75, six fewer are transplanted and two more die or become too unwell. The number of people waiting at any one time moves the same way: about 720, 610 and 520.

Why does the picture change like this?

Each usable liver is one more transplant; who receives it depends on the offering rule. Open to read how this plays out in the model, and what it leaves out.

How sure is this?

Each version was run 10 times with different chance events. The bars show the lowest and highest number transplanted within a year.

75 a month

54–60

84 a month

61–66

95 a month

67–72

Scale 50 to 80 of 100. The three ranges do not overlap, so the difference is not down to chance.

Full statistics ▸

NEXT QUESTION

Longest waiting, most unwell, or most benefit?Changes who is offered each liver first What if fewer offers were declined?Changes how often the team says no All questions →

For education and research only. Must not be used to make or influence decisions about any individual's clinical care, listing or organ offers. Built by the Edinburgh organ allocation research group.